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NEWS TRADING (By Henry Liu)
1. Friday February 5, 2010 (7:00am NY Time) CA
Employment Changes Forecast 15.2K Previous -2.6K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 8.5% Previous 8.5%
If the employment number is higher, we would SELL USD/CAD, and if the employment number is lower, we would BUY USD/CAD. This news indicator measures the numbers of new jobs created during the previous month, however in this case, we will see how many jobs were actually lost, and less negative numbers mean better economy. Our surprise factor will be at least 30K. Historically, it has moved the market by at least 50 pips if the surprise factor is hit by at least 80% of the time.
2. Friday February 5, 2010 (8:30am NY Time) US
NonFarm Payroll Forecast 10K Previous -85K
Unemployment Rate Forecast 10% Previous 10%
We’ll be trading the NFP release today, which is expected at +10K with a previous release of -85K; if you remember what happened last NFP, you’d know that the last release disappointed the market and kept USD under pressure for the better part of the months as after a revision of November NFP to a positive number, the December release brought back concerns over the rate of economic recovery. At the time of writing this analysis, market is in full risk aversion mode.
With the forecast on NFP turning positive for the first time, we could see a bullish sentiment on the USD as a result of market psychology. However, there are several things that we need to consider for tomorrow’s NFP release. First of all, there is a possible increase in the total jobs count as the Obama administration hired over 550K temporary workers for the national census. Should this number make in the January 2010
count, expect to see a blow out positive number in the NFP release and a possible 1.0% decrease in the unemployment rate. Secondly, the BLS or Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its annual benchmark revision for the payrolls. Expect to see a significant downward revision on the first quarter of 2009, which may offset the NFP release numbers all together if the revision is significant.
Therefore, let’s talk about how to trade this release: We’ll wait for the numbers to come out, but will not take any trade YET, even if we get our tradable figures (-60K or 80K). We’ll wait for a possible revision to the previous release number, which is -85K, as the market usually overreacts with the Revision and chances favor for this trade to work out if we do not get conflicting releases between the revision and the actual release; then we will wait for the Benchmark Revision… at this point, still stay out of the market.
Then the next step is to wait for the Unemployment Rate, which is at 10.0%. If the Unemployment Rate were to surprise higher, we’ll have to really make an executive decision at the time of the release and see what is the primary focus of traders. As long as we don’t surprise the 10.5%, I think the market will probably pay more attention to the NFP release. Of course if the census workers were to be included in this release, then expect to have a much lower than expected unemployment rate…
After all of the numbers have been released. Wait for the market to push… then be patient and wait for a decent retracement before getting in. Look for recent support/resistance areas for entry as a high impact news with various components will usually be extremely volatile, and those who are patient will always get a chance to enter at much better entry.
DEFINITION
“Measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation’s currency. Job creation is an important indicator of economic health because consumer spending, which is highly correlated with labor conditions, makes up a large portion of GDP. This report is the first of the month that relates to labor conditions, making it susceptible to big surprises.”
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The guys over at the Forex Robot World Cup (FRWC) have been swamped with questions too so they’ve decided to put out a PDF document that presents all the info about the competition and the robots so you can download and read it at your convenience. From the 329 robots submitted in phase 1 of the competition, only 24 passed the quality screening process as per the FRWC’s rules and moved on to phase 2, the live trading phase.
All robots 24 of these robots were placed on $1,000 real-money live accounts funded by the FRWC. The end result is 5 winners that stood above the rest and will become the FRWC Royal Trader package on February 16th. It is these robots that our new Forex Robot World Cup Expert Guide will focus
on.
While the LMD-Multicurrency robot returned 145% over 8 weeks I’m actually partial to the second place robot HiRIDER which returned 88% over 8 weeks only because I like smoother profits because it fits trading style better. That’s partly what I like so much about this competition and the FRWC Royal Trader package of winning robots … the fact that they trade different styles of systems that compliment each other very well while giving me a choice based on how I like to trade.
I’m sure you have a lot of questions so go grab this PDF document they put together. I’m confident it will answer many of your questions.
The FXCM Interview
I received a few comments from members that the FXCM interview the other day was a little too much of a promotional pitch for FXCM than it was informational about the Forex Robot World Cup. (if you missed it I think they will show it gain) I have to agree. However I think that’s partly why the FRWC guys are putting out the Informational PDF I mentioned earlier.
Much of what FXCM had to say about their broker service was not new for traders using our GallantFX custom price feed. Our custom price feed has always had free VPS, is NOT a dealer desk, supports micro lots, and unlike FXCM which has a minimum accounts size of $1000, GallantFX opens accounts with only $500. Not to mention the commission based custom price feed we’ve negotiated has lower spreads! Got questions about the Forex Robot World Cup and want to get up to speed quickly then go download this free PDF that will sort you out in no time. I’ll tell you tomorrow about the link to the location of the new Expert Guide. The Forex Robot World Cup Expert Guide.
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Some traders have asked what specifically is in my Forex Mental Training System? My system includes 11 instantly-available digital audio downloads that effortlessly train your brain using my “Million Dollar Mental Training Technology.” Each of these 11 mental training sessions will guide you through a process of relaxation, visualization and mental rehearsal that will get your mind and emotions in the right place to consistently profit from the markets.
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6*** Rule-Bending Remover: Tackles Tweaking From Your
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Installs the automatic responses that make the difference between panic and patience. The differences that make you poor or profitable. This program will give you an opportunity to rehearse success, while you relax.
You need to learn several things if you wish to try to have business in the Fx trading. It is necessary for you who are the beginners. In the foreign exchange trading, you have to know the currency thoroughly. If you wish to trade without the knowledge regarding the currencies you would trade, don’t attempt to make this forex trading. You need to comprehend all the information regarding the currencies you will choose to trade. The great foreign exchange tips to acquire that data are only from net on-line.
After learning about the fx trading, you must learn about the methods and the programs of this trading. Then, it would aid you to gain more benefits. There are several types of trading programs, so you may choose the perfect one. The right program in this trading is the fibonacci strike review that could have your trading operates automatically to make a few decision based to the history. The right program likewise must be able to create sure fluctuations in the trading domain, especially in the market you’ve selected.
Thus, you need to be careful in picking the right and the perfect system in this trading. You need to research rightly. The great foreign exchange tips to success your trade are practicing the demo of the program you’ve selected. Then, you may consult some experiences from the other businessmen which have been productive in this trading. After you’ve learned some steps of some demo system, you may be all set to start up your trading in this fx trading. If you’re still deficient of knowledge in starting out with this forex trading, you may see a lot more information in some foreign exchange trader blog. For the novices, perhaps you could consider to join some newsletters of some old-trader, then you could obtain 250 even more of pages that contain the facts you need. By performing this, you could be the professional young-trader.
You wish to take the challenges and rewards of trading the Forex markets - to follow in the footsteps of successful thousands of those already reaping these fruits? Get rid of your boss, clients, traveling, wage ceilings, and all the aspects of your day job that grind you down. Well, steady on, as you will find several essential things to understand just before you dive headfirst into the fast changing business of currencies.
Here are three great ideas you should know for trading the forex market:
1. The trading psychology is probably the most important and crucial element. Your frame of mind is critical, and loose feelings could cost you your trading budget - and more. Seeking about your personal trading character is among the very valuable lessons you will learn. Fortunately you can see several resources and publications off and online about this.
2. Take a look around, both off and on the internet and look for trading seminars. Most big cities wherever you are, commonly play host to around one or two or three seminars per year. They are commonly a pitch fest, for the host to supply you with just enough data to whet your appetite, but head out there for the experience and exposure to other attendees in your position - to impart your thoughts and feelings, to ask essential questions.
3. There is no substitute for having a proper training in trading. I am not referring to a university degree for this, simply take your time and look around, on and offline. There is quite a few info to devour. I would suggest having perhaps some weeks to be acclimatized to the wealth of accessible information. You may need to get few courses before you find the forex profit launcher review to suit you.
These 3 ideas make a good baseline for you to start your new activity, or even business. Forex is highly addictive, and quite rewarding too, but you should observe the rules and take your time, and exercise patience.
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